中信建投：VR/AR 敢问路在何方？
随着5G建设的进行，新产品和新技术的不断成熟，VR/AR再度获得高度关注，VR/AR经历了从热炒，低谷，到复苏的过程。目前VR/AR的瓶颈包括网络带宽和速率的限制，硬件技术不够成熟，以及内容应用的匮乏。在网络侧，双G是指5G和千兆带宽，5G主要是室外移动场景，也就是无线基站到移动终端一侧，而千兆带宽+ Wi-Fi6为室内固定场景。二者共同为VR/AR提供更优的管道。本地VR受到用户体验与终端成本的制约，Cloud VR能够解决主要痛点，实现设备轻量化和低成本。在硬件侧，VR/AR的硬件上仍面临的较大的技术实现难度，远高于手机等传统智能终端，很多技术需要面临从无到有的重大突破。包括近眼显示技术，超高ppi显示屏是VR眼镜的主要技术突破点，光波导将成为AR眼镜未来的主流方案。在应用侧，在技术的日趋成熟、“双G”部署加速的背景下，我们认为VR将首先在以游戏、直播为主的C端娱乐应用领域落地，并在以教育培训、营销为主的B端垂直应用领域得到发展。其中，游戏、直播存在较强的“粉丝属性”，面向用户群体较大，且适合沉浸式的场景；而VR/AR在B端的教育、培训等领域则有望在高成本、高危险、传统方式无法有效呈现具体知识领域率先落地，为企业创造价值。参考韩国经验，我们认为在运营商的推动下，VR有望成为最先落地的5G应用场景。在3G/4G时代，运营商主要扮演管道角色，提供网络；5G时代，我们认为三大运营商将逐步在以VR/AR为主的内容领域加深布局。我们认为在中国市场，VR/AR应用同样能够撬动运营商ARPU值的提升，无论是消费者市场或是B2B/B2G市场，围绕VR/AR的内容有望为运营商带来新的商业机会，因此运营商也会积极的推动VR/AR应用的发展，以吸引用户。从市场规模来看，预计到2023年，全球VR设备年出货量超过3500万，AR进展将慢于VR，到2023年全球出货量也将超过3000万。从终端形态来看，一体机VR将逐步超过PC 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