莫尼塔研究：中国经济下一步
2019年第三季度中国GDP增速当季同比下降至6%，GDP增速累计同比从6.3%降至6.2%，主要拖累是净出口拉动减少了0.1个百分点，这与工业增加值数据体现的第三季度出口产业链拖累较大相一致。2019年前三季度，最终消费支出的贡献率为60.5%，资本形成的贡献率为19.8%，净出口贡献率19.6%，中国转向消费引领增长模式的进程平稳推进。虽然第三季度实际GDP增速6%，比资本市场预期的6.1%略低，但高质量制造业发展、行业层面效率提升、经济转型战略机遇，将成为下一步讨论中国经济时的关键词，中国经济“增速换挡、效率提升、活力修复”的新常态可期。工业生产呈显著的边际好转。9月工业增加值同比从4.4%的历史低位显著回升至5.8%，季调环比从0.34%大幅反弹至0.72%。工业增加值季末反弹的状况再度呈现，反弹幅度明显大于2017年同期，体现在9月工业生产有切实好转（见图1）。1~9月产销率持平于98，反映工业品需求有切实回升；出口交货值同比从-4.3%回升至-0.7%，体现出口有边际好转。http://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_01.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_02.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_03.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_04.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_05.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_06.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_07.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_08.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_09.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_10.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_11.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_12.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_13.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_14.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_15.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_16.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_17.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_18.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_19.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_20.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_21.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_22.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_23.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_24.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_25.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_26.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_27.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_28.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_29.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_30.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_31.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_32.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_33.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_34.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_35.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_36.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_37.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_38.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_39.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_40.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_41.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_42.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_43.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_44.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_45.pnghttp://www.199it.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5_page_46.png
页:
[1]