2020年及以后的大趋势：重塑未来or未来重塑你？
新冠肺炎疫情不仅彻底改变了当下的世界，也改变了我们对于未来的构想。当面对下一次“黑天鹅”或颠覆性事件时，我们又该如何提前做好准备？日前，安永全球智库正式出版深度洞察报告《2020年及以后的大趋势》。该报告展望及剖析2020年后，世界将要面临的多个重大发展趋势，并通过安永大趋势框架（EY Megatrends Framework），洞悉这些重大趋势背后的不同推动因素，有助于更加高效地分配当下的资源，并密切关注未来的技术趋势。报告显示，新冠肺炎疫情及其对企业的影响，正在永久性地改变社会、工作、地缘政治和商业的未来。如果说基于大趋势和场景执行从未来出发的计划在以前很重要，那么现在这一点就变得至关重要。这种未来的思考和重置方式将决定哪些公司将在疫情后复兴，哪些公司将变得不再相关。领导团队总是发现，尽管他们的意图是好的，但很难利用大趋势和场景来进行规划。为什么？因为未来的颠覆会带来各种难以应对的挑战和问题：颠覆可能是我们所无法预见的颠覆自我需要将长期赌注押在未经测试的方法和模式上颠覆需要您进行投资，这些投资可确保您的长期相关性和生存能力，但在短期内可能会损害财务业绩——这是造成创新者困境的根本冲突这些挑战颇为棘手，但是如果您采取结构化和审慎的方法，也并非无法克服，但我们发现，从未来出发的战略制定流程最为有效：将大趋势作为关键分析工具来设想您将来的处境，然后逆向制定当前战略。这种方法颠覆了以当前状态作为起点制定预测、计划和战略的标准方法，特别适用于颠覆，因为颠覆将创造全新的市场和生态系统，使基于历史趋势的推断变得毫无意义。同时，从未来出发思考也拓宽了高管们的视野，有助于他们直面潜在未来的现实，即公司可能变得不再相关，或者行业本身可能被彻底重新定义。报告如下http://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275e35.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275e36.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275f37.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275f38.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275f39.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117275f3a.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727603b.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727603c.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727603d.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727613e.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727613f.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276140.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276141.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276242.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276243.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276244.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276345.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276346.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276347.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276448.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276449.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727644a.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727644b.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727654c.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727654d.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727654e.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727654f.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276650.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276651.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276652.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276753.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276754.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276755.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276756.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276857.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276858.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276859.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727695a.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727695b.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727695c.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d7211727695d.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276a5e.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276a5f.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276a60.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276a61.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276b62.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276b63.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276b00.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276b01.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276c02.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276c03.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/20201112/808f1d5f67d72117276c04.jpghttp://www.cbdio.com/image/attachement/jpg/site2/2020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来源：安永EY
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